New Delhi, November 6: An exclusive opinion poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News has unveiled that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds an advantage over the Congress in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections.
This opinion poll, the final one for this round of Assembly elections, indicates that although the Congress has made a strong recovery compared to previous opinion polls, the BJP still maintains a lead.
Historically, Rajasthan voters have consistently chosen to vote out incumbent governments in Assembly elections since 1993.
As per the CVoter survey, the Congress is expected to secure a vote share of 41.7% in the current Assembly elections, an improvement from 39.3% in the 2018 polls. However, the BJP is projected to lead with a vote share of 44.8%, an increase from 38.8% in the previous Assembly elections.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and other smaller parties are anticipated to witness a significant drop in vote share, declining from 22% in 2018 to approximately 12% in the upcoming elections, intensifying the two-party competition.
According to the survey, the Congress is projected to win between 67 to 77 seats in the current elections, a notable decrease from the 100 seats it secured in the 2018 Assembly elections. The majority threshold in the 200-member house is 101.
In contrast, the BJP is expected to win between 114 to 124 seats, suggesting it is well-positioned to attain a comfortable majority in the upcoming elections. The “others” category, which includes the BSP, had secured 21 seats in the 2018 elections, but is projected to reduce to between 5 to 9 seats in the current polls.
Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s reconciliation with young Congress leader Sachin Pilot and the implementation of various welfare schemes in the past six months have contributed to his efforts to regain lost ground. Nevertheless, these efforts may not be sufficient to secure a victory.
The survey interviewed a total of 17,534 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3%.
