New Delhi, November 6: An exclusive CVoter opinion poll conducted for ABP News has revealed that the Congress holds a small but significant advantage over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections.
Notably, this advantage for the Congress is attributed more to voter “fatigue” with the BJP than any strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the government.
The survey indicates that the induction of Jyotiraditya Scindia and his supporters into the BJP in March 2020 has not altered the voter preference towards the Congress in the Chambal-Gwalior region, which continues to favor the Congress.
According to the CVoter survey, the Congress is projected to achieve a vote share of 44.3% in the current polls, an increase from 40.9% in the 2018 Assembly elections. The BJP’s vote share is also projected to rise from 41% in 2018 to 42.1% in the current elections.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which once had a strong presence in certain areas bordering Uttar Pradesh, is experiencing a significant decline in its support base, with the projected vote share dropping from 5% in 2018 to 2.2% this time.
The survey predicts that the Congress is poised to win between 118 and 130 seats in the current elections, compared to the 114 seats it secured in 2018. The majority threshold in the 230-member Assembly is 116.
Conversely, the BJP is projected to win between 99 and 111 seats in the current elections. In 2018, the party won 109 seats, and the Congress formed a government with Kamal Nath as Chief Minister.
However, the revolt led by Jyotiraditya Scindia and over two other MLAs in March 2020 resulted in the fall of the Congress government, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned as Chief Minister of the state.
The CVoter survey interviewed 28,223 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3%.
